Pellego is a modern real estate brokerage for investors and investor-agents.
Our free research platform provides instant investment context for any house. Search an address to find renovated comps, renovation guides, and editable flip and cash flow calculators.
Our paid memberships for agents and investors take this context to the next level by continuously analyzing every active listing as a flip and a rental, so that you can filter listings by min profit, min cash flow, and a suite of ROIs.
Pellego available for the Seattle Puget Sound and in early invite-access for the greater California Bay Area.
We understand investors because we are investors—we won't waste your time.
Pellego never shares your information with anyone, even when you are competing for a property with a Pellego agent or client. Only you will be able to view the changes you make and the properties that you save. To improve Pellego and its predictions, Pellego may anonymously aggregate your data with everyone else's.
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From analyzing 13,000 flips in greater Seattle-area since 2002, we find that on average, MLS-purchased flips sell for 1.8x their purchase price compared with 1.6x off-market and 1.4x at foreclosure auctions.
While we do not know the condition of these flips, we think if anything MLS-purchased flips are in better condition, not worse. Furthermore, off-market deals often have an assignment fee and foreclosure deals have a commission paid on top of the purchase price, which makes MLS deals even more favorable than the numbers suggest.
Our guts tell us that this feels off, and to some extent this is true. The opportunity for luck is greater in these markets, and the top 10% of off-market flips perform better than the top 10% of MLS-purchased flips. Nevertheless, the MLS still presents a meaningful buying advantage for rehab investors.
This suggest there is more supply (deals) relative to demand (competing buyers) when shopping for deals on the MLS versus off market or at foreclosure auction.
From a supply perspective, 4_% of historical flips were purchased from the MLS versus 3_% off-market and 2_% at a foreclosure auction. With more supply, the MLS can absorb more demand.
From a demand perspective, we can say there's roughly 87% of the relative demand off-market as measured by the resale multiples (1.4 / 1.6). Because there are 1.25x more deals on the MLS than off-market (4_% / 3_%), we can deduce there is about 1.09x more demand (87% * 1.25).
In other words, there is 1.09x more demand on the MLS, but 1.25x more supply to absorb it.
We can't say for sure, but we have some theories as to why there is less competition on the MLS than it might appear.
For starters, prospective homeowners cannot easily finance properties that need repairs, and when they do compete it is normally for cosmetic flip opportunities. Many sellers also over price their listings and end up accepting a lowball offer—think of it as a hidden supply on the MLS.
The demand for off-market deals is also is also higher than it appear. From intuition and the advice of others, investors gravitate to the idea that buying off-market or at the auction is less-competitive. The problem is that everyone thinks this way.
In many cases, investors are purchasing overlapping mailing listings and calling on the same FSBO directories.
This is not to say you should only pursue MLS-listed opportunities. Rather, we believe the MLS should be an active source of opportunities for serious investors. From analyzing 13,000 flips in greater Seattle-area since 2002, we find that on average, MLS-purchased flips sell for 1.8x their purchase price compared with 1.6x off-market and 1.4x at foreclosure auctions.
Pellego’s algorithms uses machine learning to model patterns from tens of thousands of historical flipped on-market sales to predict which comps are most likely to represent the after repair value ("ARV").
Pellego’s ARV estimate has a 7% median error rate, meaning that in 50% of the cases Pellego’s estimate is within 7% of the resale price. Users can get a more personalized ARV estimate by adjusting which comps are “included” in the ARV estimate, as designated by a green thumbs up.
Learn more about Pellego's Comp and Value Analysis.
Pellego’s algorithms estimate five scopes of work for any house. The scopes are based on the specific structure, amenities, and location of the house. The ranges of cost in the guides assume sales tax and some contractor markup. We strongly encourage users to independently review the guides and cautiously arrive at their own rehab estimate.
Learn more about Pellego's Rehab Analysis.
Pellego’s uses public rental data to predict the as-is and after-repair rent estimates. The "Hold" strategy uses the as-is rent estimate and the "Refi" strategy uses the after repair rent estimate. At this time, there are no rental comps on Pellego, and we encourage you to use other resources for added due diligence.
Learn more about Pellego's Rental Analysis.
Because contractors are in short supply, any contractor we recommend would quickly become too busy or expensive for the original individual who told us about the contractor.
As a company, we do not make contractor introductions. However, our agents—as independent professionals—may share whatever information they wish, and many of our agents are active flippers themselves.
Separately, because lenders contact us with new offerings and we see what our clients are getting, we have an evolving list of lenders that we are happy to introduce. In some cases, these lenders pay us referral fees.
If you are amazing, we want to know. Here is a list of current openings, and we are always open to unsolicited pitches.